COURSE OVERVIEW
Successful project delivery hinges on effective risk analysis and management. This program equips participants with the knowledge and tools to systematically identify, assess, and quantify project risks, and to develop comprehensive mitigation strategies. Through detailed financial appraisal methods, participants learn to protect organizational investments and ensure projects align with strategic and financial goals.

KEY FEATURES
Participants in this 10-day program will gain skills to:

• Recognize risk categories relevant to their organization’s projects and operations
• Identify project-specific risks and uncertainties across design, planning, execution, and maintenance phases
• Apply proven techniques for risk quantification, analysis, and mitigation
• Develop a dynamic Risk Management Plan for ongoing project risk oversight
• Conduct thorough financial appraisals of capital projects to meet strategic objectives
• Safeguard investments in capital-intensive projects
• Understand and apply principles of engineering economics
• Integrate financial management, cash flow analysis, and risk management to maximize project profitability

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Upon completing the program, delegates will be able to:

• Identify and assess project-specific risks throughout all project phases, including scheduling
• Use qualitative and quantitative methods to measure exposure to risks in measurable terms
• Prioritize and rank risks for systematic management
• Apply expected monetary value (EMV) to determine appropriate contingency levels
• Utilize six primary risk treatment strategies to proactively address potential risks
• Implement dynamic risk mitigation to align project risk levels with organizational thresholds
• Perform discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, including present and annual value calculations (NPV, EAV)
• Determine the internal rate of return (IRR) to evaluate financial risk exposure
• Compare and rank project alternatives using tools such as NPV, IRR, BCR, and EAV/C
• Integrate risk analysis into cash flow forecasting during feasibility studies
• Monitor project cash flows and anticipate issues requiring early intervention

TARGET AUDIENCE
This program is ideal for professionals involved in project risk management and financial evaluation, including:

• Project and program managers
• Project leaders and engineers
• Production and operations engineers
• Cost engineers and finance personnel
• Project planners and risk managers
• Project control and business services staff responsible for project financing and cash flow management

TRAINING METHODOLOGY
The program combines formal instruction with interactive exercises to develop advanced skills in project assessment, risk analysis, and financial management. Participants will engage in individual exercises, team projects, case studies, group discussions, and multimedia learning. The content is designed for immediate practical application, and prior knowledge is not required, as the course introduces concepts progressively from foundational to advanced levels. Pre- and post-course assessments evaluate learning effectiveness.

COURSE CONTENTS

Module 1 – Fundamentals of Project Risk Management

• Overview of risk management principles
• Key concepts: risk definitions, the triple constraint, stakeholder analysis
• Risk management processes: context, identification, qualitative & quantitative analysis, strategy formulation, and implementation
• Techniques for identifying risk events, triggers, and impacts

Module 2 – Project Risk Analysis, Assessment & Quantification

• Qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis techniques
• Risk matrices, ranking, and prioritization
• Expert panels, brainstorming, Delphi, NGT, Fishbone Diagram, and other identification techniques
• Progressive risk management plan development

Module 3 – Advanced Quantitative Risk Analysis

• Detailed risk quantification and prioritization
• Probability and impact estimation
• EMV concepts for decision-making under uncertainty

Module 4 – Risk Strategy Development

• Development of proactive risk mitigation strategies
• Risk treatment objectives and matrices
• Forecasting cash flows and financial scenario planning

Module 5 – Scenario Planning & Risk Mitigation

• Advanced risk scenario planning linked to financial feasibility
• Implementation of mitigation strategies: acceptance, prevention, avoidance, mitigation, and transfer
• Multi-option decision-making integrating risk and cash flow analyses

Module 6 – Fundamentals of Economic Appraisal

• Principles of time value of money, discounting, and compounding
• Project evaluation criteria and discounted cash flow methods
• Equivalent annual cost/worth methods and appraisal of mixed-stream cash flows

Module 7 – Rate of Return, Benefit-Cost Ratio, and Cost of Capital

• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculations for single and multiple projects
• Incremental analysis and comparative evaluation of options with different lifespans
• Cost of capital calculations: debt, equity, WACC, and financial structuring
• Benefit-cost ratio estimation

Module 8 – Financial Risk Analysis and Expected Value

• Probabilistic methods for risk quantification
• EMV application for financial risk assessment
• Scenario planning: best, base, and worst-case projections
• Decision-making under uncertainty

Module 9 – Financial Scenario Planning Case Study

• Application of three-point scenario analyses to cash flows
• EMV calculations before and after mitigation
• Developing probability and impact mitigation strategies
• Deriving optimal economic mitigation points using the J-curve

Module 10 – Financial Modeling and Project Evaluation

• Detailed cash flow analysis considering costs, inflation, taxation, depreciation, and interest
• Forecasting and modeling project cash flows under uncertainty
• Incorporating opportunity costs, sunk costs, and economic life into evaluations
• Depreciation methods, taxation, and interest costs integration into cash flow models